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20110216 - 20110215 Weather FED


U.S. macro data are not exceptional. Next to a start on real activity (in line with the contracts in December), it is also a setback for the industrial production and producer prices rise and the capacity utilization remains at 76% area, thereby influencing the world of work. The Fed said in the evening, however, more optimistic about the economic framework and a flow of M & A and some good results leading indexes upward, but together, the volatility.
DJI +0.50% +0.63% SPX, Nasdaq +0.67% VIX 16.72 (+2.14%)

Europe
New interesting day for the financial sector. SocGen (+4.86%) and drag all the good public sector (BNP published in the night, also good), she is accompanied by other titles such as Heineken (+3.12%). Tensions on pigs are reduced further by a doubling of the rescue fund and this allows banks from Spain and Portugal to join the party.
CAC +1.00%, DAX +0.19%, SMI +0.31% +1.04% DJES50

Japan
The outlook for the Fed is also the impact that despite Japan l'ascesa della Cina continua a trovare negli USA un grande sbocco per i propri mercati. Sono quindi gli esportatori a trascinare l'indice al rialzo, approfittando anche di uno jpy che pur un po' rafforzato "resiste" in area 83.60.
Nikkei +0.26%

Asia
Meno brillanti gli altri mercati asiatici nonostante il buon outlook USA. Da una parte persiste il rischio di un rialzo dei tassi, dall'altra, nonostante la maggior parte degli analisti continui a predire che gli emergenti sono il mercato del futuro, al momento le preferenze sembrano più rivolte ai mercati sviluppati che stanno, in parte, recuperando un po' del terreno perso.
Hang Seng 0.00%, Straits Time -0.42%, Taiwan -0.33%, Shanghai -0.31%, Sensex +0.28%


FX USDCHF 0.9587 (0.9628)
USDJPY 83.58 (83.70)
EURUSD 1.3573 (1.3524)
EURCHF 1.3013 (1.3022)
EURGBP 0.8427 (0.8369)
GBPUSD 1.6106 (1.6159)
GBPCHF 1.5442 (1.5558 )

USD Libor 3 months 0.31% (0.31%)
USA tbill 3 months 0.11% (0.12%)
USA tbond 5 years 2.34% (2.35%)
Greece 10 years 11.86% (11.80%)

Gold 1377.60 ( 1373.90)
Crude 85.06 (84.54)
SPGS Commodity 653.89 (649.77)
Baltic Dry Index 1271 (1236)

Considerations
But really! if things go well in China, then the market goes down because The BoC will raise rates ... if things go well in the U.S., with the market already supported by tons of liquidity provided by the Fed, then the markets go? Ben will continue to pour billions into the coffers of the state even with good data? Some analysts began to think that the "goldilocks" (no liquidity and inflation) is almost over.

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- Influenza (what can not ... Soros)

USA
Exxon (-2.28%) announced that the ratio of known reserves is important, but is largely due to the acquisition of XTO: investors do not take kindly. Then comes that Soros announced that its hedge funds have downloaded Monsanto (-4.78%): in this case, the investors get hurt. The rest think the data on retail sales a bit 'disappointing and it is unclear whether a growth problem or for the usual bad weather.
DJI -0.34% -0.32% SPX, Nasdaq -0.15% VIX 16:37 (+2.63%)

Europe
Double play: on one side of the economy ministers agree to double the bail-out fund, giving oxygen to the PIGS, the other the good results of Barclays (+5.79%) and Danone (+3.33%) continue to confirm the good fortune of corporate earnings. Some problems on raw materials instead, a little restaurant that 'their performance in recent days.
CAC +0.33%, DAX +0.05%, SMI +0.37% +0.40% DJES50

Japan
JPY tries again: back to closer to 84 and begins to hope to investors that the future is more than rosy. At the same time get some upgrades from the brokerage houses that allow certain titles to drag the group: Sumitomo (+2.44%), Sony (+2.51%) ... thank you.
Nikkei +0.57%

Asia
Asian markets stagnating, with hk trying to rebuild after the setbacks of recent days, along with Shanghai, although a little 'tired' manages to stay afloat. Negatives (again) so that Taiwan Singapore, despite Dell's suppliers can benefit from the results of the computer company.
Hang Seng +0.62%, Straits Time -0.17%, Taiwan -0.10%, Shanghai +0.21%, Sensex +0.03%


FX USDCHF 0.9628 (0.9689)
USDJPY 83.70 (83.54)
EURUSD 1.3524 (1.3517)
EURCHF 1.3022 (1.3096) 0.8369 EURGBP
(0.8425)
GBPUSD 1.6159 (1.6043)
GBPCHF 1.5558 (1.5544)

USD Libor 3 months 0.31% (0.31%)
USA tbill 3 months 0.12% (0.12%)
USA tbond 5 years 2.35% (2.37%)
Greece 10 years 11.80% (11:58%)

Gold 13373.90 (1366.03)
Crude 84.54 (85.21)
SPGS Commodity 649.77 (656.80)
Baltic Dry Index 1236 (1206)

Considerations
They take bad traders "Born in the USA". Deutsche Boerse has bought the NYSE. But as the Europeans, Germans even, will include the time of U.S. capitalism? Indeed at first glance seem to do much harm, in fact, the amount of economic activity that has been exported in recent years, especially to emerging markets, goes well beyond the NYSE. Perhaps it's looking a bit 'over the surface.

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20110214 - China, but what we consume?

USA
We'll come back to China, providing data of great import and export, both exploded beyond expectations. The thought must be immediately to the amount of commodities that China needs to import, process and export in the form of products. On raw materials, all securities related business with Energy (+2.11%) and Materials (+1.03%) to remove all the others.
DJI -0.04% +0.24% SPX, Nasdaq +0.27% VIX 15.95 (+1.66%)

Europe
The picture is more or less similar to the U.S., with raw materials that make up the locomotive to the other sectors . Some difficulties for the financial sector back to reflect on the problems of the peripheral countries. Finally, a set of corporate results and upgrade / downgrade offers some 'noise' below. Egypt now seems a distant problem.
CAC -0.11%, DAX +0.34%, SMI +0.01% -0.20% DJES50

Japan
not only come the Chinese data, ma anche qualcosa sull'inflazione, che pur restando alta per gli standard occidentali (4.6%) è comunque nettamente inferiore alle attese (5.4%). Se ne vanno le paure di un forte restringimento monetario e torna l'idea di una crescita guidata dal colosso cinese.
Nikkei +0.20%

Asia
Il quadro è simile anche sugli altri paesi asiatici dove Shanghai, finalmente, si prende la sua rivincita. Sono meno brillanti Hong Kong e Singapore che vedono il tasso di inflazione cinese sì inferiore alle attese, ma comunque sufficientemente alto da portare ad una manovra sui tassi di interesse.
Hang Seng -0.45%, Straits Time -0.63%, Taiwan +0.42%, Shanghai +1.02%, Sensex -0.23%


FX USDCHF 0.9689 (0.9730)
USDJPY 83.54 (83.18)
EURUSD 1.3517 (1.3552)
EURCHF 1.3096 (1.3187)
EURGBP 0.8425 (0.8431)
GBPUSD 1.6043 (1.6073)
GBPCHF 1.5544 (1.5639)

USD Libor 3 months 0.31% (0.31%)
USA tbill 3 months 0.12% (0.11%) 2:37
USA tbond 5 years% (2.37%)
Greece 10 years 11:58% (11:52%)

Gold 1366.03 (1359.48)
Crude 85.21 ( 85.72)
SPGS Commodity 656.80 (652.93)
Baltic Dry Index 1206 (1178)

Considerations
Basiel III effects are felt and Credit Suisse announced the arrival of its contingency bond. In general, high coupon risk and "only" in the event that some parameters of the budget falls below a certain threshold. Several interesting factors: in addition to the classic "but that parameter will never be so low" by investors eager for a good 80 CPN-style, up to the fact that the "trigger" will change the very parameters that trigger . Be followed carefully!