Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Suitable Names For A White Mouse

20110209 - Inflation or work?

USA
Day strained U.S. markets where a Disney (+5.29%) and public good results you just need to keep afloat the Dow, but not the other indices. At first concerns on inflation, Bernanke throws gasoline stating that "you do not see signs of a return to work," implying that then continue with the QE2. Seriously affected the financial sector (-0.73%) also due to the abandonment of the CFO of Wells Fargo (-2.85%)
DJI +0.06% SPX -0.28%, Nasdaq -0.11% VIX 15.87 (+0.38%)

Europe
In the absence of particular macro news and unable to determine the impact of the words of Bernanke, European markets only goes from the positive and negative, aided by some good published results (such as Syngenta +4.43%) and slowed down by less favorable weather (such as Sanofi -1.56%)
CAC -0.43%, DAX -0.03%, SMI -0.11%, DJES50 -0.36%

Giappone
Si sveglia, dopo un tonfo colossale, il Baltic Dry Index (maggio 2010 oltre 4000, oggi 1092) e gli spedizionieri ringraziano. Sono proprio loro a sostenere l'indice in quanto una serie di "tagli" da parte dei broker portare l'indice in territorio negativo.
Nikkei -0.11%

Asia
In generale, le manovre monetarie dei paesi emergenti e la "resistenza" della disoccupazione USA (e Europea) iniziano a far pensare agli investitori asiatici che la ripresa potrebbe avere qualche problema, e dal punto di vista finanziario, questo danneggia i paesi dove viene bloccata l'inflazione. Particolarmente in difficoltà Taiwan, dove alcuni downgrade su grossi nomi quali Asustek e risultati sotto le attese da parte di China Steel lo rendono il peggior mercato della regione.
Hang Seng -0.73%, Straits Time -1.21%, Taiwan -1.89%, Shanghai +0.42%, Sensex -0.65%

FX
USDCHF 0.9596 (0.9629)
USDJPY 82.58 (82.41)
EURUSD 1.3692 (1.3647)
EURCHF 1.3138 (1.3141)
EURGBP 0.8504 (0.8490)
GBPUSD 1.6101 (1.6075)
GBPCHF 1.5450 (1.5479)

USD libor 3 mesi 0.31% (0.31%)
USA tbill 3 mesi 0.13% (0.14%)
USA tbond 5 anni 2.32% (2.41%)
Grecia 10 anni 11.26% (11.20%)

Oro 1361.65 (1363.28)
Greggio 86.92 (87.39)
SPGS Commodity 654.55 (648.21)
Baltic Dry Index 1092 (1064)

Considerations
It's the old school, the "inflation = employment," the good old Phillips curve (http://it. wikipedia.org / wiki / Curva_di_Phillips). Report that some politicians tried to exploit to his advantage by combining disaster money. Sure, Bernaneke addresses the problem in another way: "as long as there is no inflation, I increase the mass to stimulate employment, but the parameters of the equation are always the same.

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