Thursday, February 24, 2011

Tattoos With White Outline

20110224 - 20110223

USA
again articulated a day. Crude oil above 100 in the morning really gets European fear the risks for the fragile economic recovery, macro data at 14.30 and do nothing but put the confusion: the unemployment claims drop below 300k, but orders for durable goods disappoint, in seriously if you exclude defense goods and transportation. Later also the new houses come under the expectations, but in the meantime the oil back to 97, easing the tension.
DJI -0.31% -0.10% SPX, Nasdaq +0.54% VIX 21:31 (-3.66%)

Europe
One Wake Up with the crude oil to 103 due to the total uncertainty generated by the situation in North Africa. Potentially positive for some sectors, critical for those who count on huge cash injection to support the market. The dividend payment of some major titles also "drug" the movement of the indices: for example, Novartis lost 2.65 CHF, but pays dividend of 2.20 CHF.
CAC -0.09%, DAX -0.89%, -1.61% SMI, DJES50 -0.20%, 24.99 V2X (--%)

Japan
The situation on the oil improves bringing some hope that economic recovery will continue, and the JPY, having sunk to 81.63, tries to get back at least to the 82, giving a bit 'of oxygen to the exporters. With great timing, Credit Suisse enhances its forecast for Toyota (+2.18%), giving the meeting a positive picture.
Nikkei +0.71%

Asia
Well the other Asian markets. Again, everything revolves around the price of crude oil and to take advantage of the return below 100 are the titles that had suffered most in recent days as airlines.
Hang Seng +1.46%, Straits Time +1.15%, Taiwan +0.68%, Shanghai -0.43%, Sensex +0.53%


FX USDCHF 0.9249 (0.9285)
USDJPY 81.91 (82.07)
EURUSD 1.3823 (1.3753)
EURCHF 1.2786 (1.2770)
EURGBP 0.8563 (0.8481)
GBPUSD 1.3144 (1.6213)
GBPCHF 1.4934 (1.5057)

USD Libor 3 months 0.31% (0.31%)
USA tbill 3 months 0.12% (0.11%)
USA tbond 5 years 2.20% (2.18%)
Greece 10 years 11.86% (11.75%)

Gold 1407.39 (1409.00)
Crude 97.90 (99.06)
SPGS Commodity 681.99 (684.91)
Baltic Dry Index 1242 (1253)

Considerations
The price of raw materials is a big problem: if the impact of materials agricultural commodities on inflation in developed economies is relatively low (at least compared to emerging economies), the price of energy means a few extra problems, especially in Europe and USA where the massive amount of liquidity immessa nel sistema deve essere monitorata con particolare attenzione dalle banche centrali per evitare che si trasformi in forte inflazione.

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