Wednesday, February 23, 2011

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Oil - Crude Oil at 100!

USA
Non bastavano i problemi nel nord Africa... ci voleva anche una HP (-9.62%) ad annunciare risultati così così, una Ford (-2.43%) a dover richiamare oltre 100k veicoli e la paura che il greggio al rialzo potrebbe strangolare la ripresa economica (inflazione senza ripresa... brivido). A sostenere il mercato, ovviamente, i titoli legati all'energia, con un +1.94%, unico settore positivo.
DJI -0.88%, SPX -0.61%, Nasdaq -0.94%, VIX 22.13 (+6.39% !!!)

Europa
Giornata di nuovo complex in European markets. In Libya, the insurgency continues and there are fears the domino effect on other countries of the region (in addition to those critics). Unlike the U.S., Europe weighs negatively basic materials sector, because of the problems present in the active areas at risk. OMV (-5.83%) is just one of several examples, but there are also mines suffer. Swiss holds only the index, thanks to super defensive like Novartis, Roche and Nestle.
CAC -0.92%, DAX -1.69%, +0.0% SMI, DJES50 -0.95% V2X 24.99 (+4.42%)

Japan
addition to the problems that are afflicting the North Africa, the returns to Japan problem analysis. The JPY is again used as currency of salvation (with the CHF), but with the JPY again very close to 82, for exporters things go wrong again. Obviously Japan does not even like to see the raw area 100.
Nikkei -1.19%

Asia
on the oil down and airlines and a lot of uncertainty. Asian markets, however, seem to take it less worse than the others and look to the future with some relief on U.S. markets, a slight recovery after the sharp falls of recent days.
Hang Seng +0.07%, Straits Time -0.07%, Taiwan +0.15%, Shanghai +0.32%, Sensex -1.35%


FX USDCHF 0.9285 (0.9378)
USDJPY 82.07 (82.67)
EURUSD 1.3753 (1.3692)
EURCHF 1.2770 (1.2840)
EURGBP 0.8481 (0.8459)
GBPUSD 1.6213 (1.6186)
GBPCHF 1.5057 (1.5179)

USD libor 3 mesi 0.31% (0.31%)
USA tbill 3 mesi 0.11% (0.11%)
USA tbond 5 anni 2.18% (2.15%)
Grecia 10 anni 11.75% (11.76%)

Oro 1409.00 (1398.74)
Greggio 99.06 (95.55)
SPGS Commodity 684.91 (670.26)
Baltic Dry Index 1253 (1279)

Considerazioni
In questa situazione di crisi si notano diversi tratti "comuni" ad altre situazioni particolari. I tassi delle obbligazioni a lungo termine tedesche stanno scendendo, l'oro sta recuperando, JPY e CHF si rafforzano, gli azionari scendono and the spreads widen ... all classic signs of risk aversion. It is missing one: the dollar! and this could be another important signal.

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